Are grocery prices going up? Well, yes. The average American grocery bill rose 29.4% between March 2020 and December 2025 to a whopping $681 per month, according to recent data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics1. And food prices are still climbing. Despite the cooling of inflation, according to the Department of Agriculture’s Food Price Outlook, we’re likely to spend a further 2.3% on groceries in 20262.
Beef prices, in particular, have seen particularly sharp increases in the past few years. Beef roasts increased 73.8% in cost since 2020, and beef steaks and ground beef also saw extreme price increases. The cost of other items like eggs, coffee, and flour have also spiked significantly since 2020, and products like candy, bananas, and processed fish and seafood have seen some of the most dramatic price hikes in the past year. So why are beef prices so high? Why are eggs so expensive? If it isn’t purely to do with inflation, what’s the culprit?
Why Are Grocery Prices Rising?
According to Federico Fontanella, PMP, who recently authored a report on this data for Trace One, “there isn’t a single cause behind rising grocery prices3.” Rather, he explains, “the data points to a combination of pressures.”
1. Volatility Around Trade Policies
Perhaps the most visible factor in the news these days is the ever-present (and ever-changing) threat of tariffs and evolution in trade policies. The U.S. imported about $222 billion in food products in 2024 — dominated by exported goods from Mexico, Canada, the EU, Brazil, and China.
The volatility of the communication surrounding potential tariffs and exemptions has contributed to widespread uncertainty that, Fontanella explains, “could be encouraging suppliers to price more defensively, keeping grocery prices elevated even as broader inflation cools.”
2. Production Disruption Due to Climate Change
Climate-related production disruptions are another crucial factor in price hikes, seeing as they “have made supply more volatile for certain crops and proteins,” according to Fontanella.
For example, you can feel the stretch when it comes to coffee prices, which, according to the report, have “outpaced all other major grocery items.” The average cost of coffee for American consumers spiked 18.8% from December 2024 to December 2025 alone, something that the Food and Agriculture Organization attributes to adverse climatic conditions and reduced exports.
Another example: eggs. The volatility of egg prices is not news to most Americans, who have noticed the spikes and overcorrections at various points in the past five years. Overall, eggs have increased 51.4% since 2020, a change that is in part linked to regular outbreaks of avian flu. This too can be linked to climate change, according to a 2023 study in Nature, which showed that climate change impacted bird migration that allowed the pathogen to spread4.
3. Post-Pandemic Supply Chain Recovery
All of these new factors only serve to add to disruption that began during the pandemic. As the report puts it, “what began as a disruption in supply chains during the early stages of COVID-19 quickly evolved into the fastest period of food price increases since the 1970s.” From March 2020 to December 2025, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for food at home rose 29.4% (as compared to 25.6% for other items).
“Post-pandemic labor shortages and higher input costs continue to affect farming and food production,” says Fontanella. The average American is still feeling the repercussions of these shortages today.
Sources:
- https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.toc.htm
- https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/food-price-outlook/summary-findings
- https://www.traceone.com/resources/plm-compliance-blog/grocery-store-items-that-have-increased-most-in-price
- https://www.nature.com/articles/s41564-023-01538-0
